Trading expectancy: your average result per trade
Expectancy is the average amount a trade makes or loses over the long run. If it is positive after fees, more trades mean more money; if not, more trades only speed up the losses.
The formula
Expectancy = win rate × average win − loss rate × average loss.
Example: 45% wins, average win 180; 55% losses, average loss 100. Expectancy = 0.45 × 180 − 0.55 × 100 = 81 − 55 = +26 per trade. Over 200 trades that is about +5,200 — if the numbers hold.
The same number is simply the net result of all trades divided by their count — a quick way to check it.
Expectancy in R
If you risk a fixed amount per trade (1R), divide expectancy by it. +0.3R means that on average every trade earns 30% of what you risk. Expectancy in R lets you compare strategies with different position sizes and different periods.
Fees and funding are part of it
A scalper with an expectancy of +3 per trade before costs and 4 in fees per round trip has a negative expectancy. The more trades a strategy makes, the more important it is to measure expectancy on net results.
See these numbers for your own trades
Connect an exchange and your trades load automatically — PnL, fees and funding per trade. The demo works without signing up.
How to use it
- Compare setups: keep the ones with positive expectancy over enough trades, drop or fix the rest.
- Compare long and short, coins, hours — expectancy is often positive in one slice and negative in another.
- Watch it over time: a falling expectancy is an early sign that the market changed.
In CheckMyProfit
The dashboard shows the average trade with fees and funding, and analytics show the result per coin, side, hour, day of week and tag — the same expectancy, broken down to where it comes from.